tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9513299142309481822024-03-13T19:27:22.884-07:00Baidu PlanetChina economic and technology news. Baidu (BIDU) financial performance and stock review.Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.comBlogger133125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-738480805881052792013-04-04T05:49:00.004-07:002013-04-04T05:49:40.755-07:00China LEI Increases: "Economic expansion should continue short-term"<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
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<strong><span style="color: blue;">China Monthly LEI & CEI</span></strong><br />
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Current Leading Index: 257.5<br />
Current Coincident Index: 234.9<br />
Post-Recession LEI High: 257.5 (February 2013)<br />
Post-Recession CEI High: 234.9 (February 2013)<br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHVrWVZ2c2ZwN2VsX3FSRXB2OEJNVFE&oid=4&zx=5qm20sdvuv3w" /><br />
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Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “The Leading Economic Index for China maintained its pace in February, a sign that the current economic expansion should continue in the near-term. Current economic conditions strengthened considerably compared to previous months. However, the six-month average growth rate of the LEI has weakened. The drivers of growth remain fragile, and recent improvements in consumer expectations are not likely sustainable in the face of rising inflation. Investment activity, which is also underpinning the current growth rebound, is heavily credit dependent and could be affected by changes in monetary policy in the wake of the leadership transition.”<br />
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$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACRO
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Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-60833619355589886362013-03-06T20:36:00.002-08:002013-03-06T20:36:52.511-08:00China Manufacturing Slows: "Pace of recovery is mild"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong><br />
Current Index: 50.4<br />
Chart High: 54.5 (January 2011)<br />
Chart Low: 47.6 (August 2012)<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The PMI is a percentage - not a total.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=17&zx=89e3sj10ukaf" /><br />
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Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The final February HSBC manufacturing PMI suggests a slower pace of expansion. But China's recovery continues on improving domestic demand conditions and the labour market. The pace of ongoing recovery is mild, implying no need for the PBoC to tighten policy any time soon."<br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-14330716329154258172013-02-25T05:29:00.001-08:002013-02-25T05:30:09.134-08:00China Manufacturing Expansion Slows: "Gradual Recovery"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong><br />
Current Index: 50.4 (Flash Estimate)<br />
Chart High: 54.5 (January 2011)<br />
Chart Low: 47.6 (August 2012)<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The PMI is a percentage - not a total.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=12&zx=hy9adalb63mp" /><br />
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Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The Chinese economy is still on track for a gradual recovery. Despite the moderation of February’s flash PMI, the index recorded the fourth consecutive reading above the 50 critical line. The underlying strength of Chinese growth recovery remains intact, as indicated by the still expanding employment and the recent pick-up of credit growth."<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong><br />
3-Months: 51.4<br />
6-Months: 50.4<br />
12-Months: 49.4<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The PMI is a percentage - not a total.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=9&zx=6yd3nhm9ez6o" /><br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-22043725388112581322013-02-20T21:22:00.003-08:002013-02-20T21:23:23.240-08:00China LEI Increases: "Economic rebound continues to look modest"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
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<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong><br />
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Current Leading Index: 253.4<br />
Current Coincident Index: 233.7<br />
Post-Recession LEI High: 253.4 (January 2013)<br />
Post-Recession CEI High: 233.7 (January 2013)<br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHVrWVZ2c2ZwN2VsX3FSRXB2OEJNVFE&oid=2&zx=u9r7l9m10pmy" /><br />
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Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “January’s acceleration in the LEI was driven primarily by consumer expectations and estimated real estate activity, both of which were likely positively affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Credit extension also contributed to the increase in the LEI. Despite the seasonal uptick in some components, recent gains in the LEI have become less widespread and the current rebound in economic activity continues to look modest.”<br />
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$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-37842260459151963462013-02-12T19:25:00.000-08:002013-02-12T19:25:49.919-08:00Jim Rogers: The Rise of China and the Asian Century<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QTwcMopqsyw/UFvWoJgLwHI/AAAAAAAAAxM/DgGt46x1vf4/s1600/JimRogers.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QTwcMopqsyw/UFvWoJgLwHI/AAAAAAAAAxM/DgGt46x1vf4/s320/JimRogers.jpeg" width="296" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Jim Rogers</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>Jim Rogers on China's Ascension, Wall Street's Downfall, and Obama's Failures</b></span><br />
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Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings and author of "Street Smarts," tells Reuters Consumer News Editor Chrystia Freeland that China will ride out internal issues to lead the world. Rogers also says that Wall Street's ways will erode its stature and President Obama's ideas for reviving the economy will fail.</div>
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<b><span style="color: blue;">About Jim Rogers</span></b> Jim Rogers, a native of Demopolis, Alabama, is an author, financial commentator, and successful international investor. He has been frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and most publications dealing with the economy or finance. </div>
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<a href="http://amzn.to/128I7Sz">Street Smarts:</a> Adventures on the Road and in the Markets by Jim Rogers</div>
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Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-49851148310641108332013-02-11T15:13:00.001-08:002013-02-11T16:02:54.059-08:00Chinese Economy and Employment Expands<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RYpN9Pt9mt8/UOjAZF2lRtI/AAAAAAAAAHU/CuApBMyXDwc/s1600/ChinaBeijingSkyline.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RYpN9Pt9mt8/UOjAZF2lRtI/AAAAAAAAAHU/CuApBMyXDwc/s320/ChinaBeijingSkyline.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI, Services NMI, and Composite PMI by Month</strong><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=7&zx=w3qomuw8u6k6" /><br />
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<i>Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC</i>, said: "Services activities resumed faster expansion on rising new business flows, along with the recovery of manufacturing growth. Still solid job gains plus higher business expectations bode well for further improvement of services sectors’ growth. Following the growth bottoming out in 4Q 2012, China’s growth recovery is now on a firmer footing."<br />
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<b>Chinese Employment Expands</b> "Staff numbers increased at a marked pace in the service sector during January, despite the rate of job creation having slowed from the previous month. Employment levels in the manufacturing sector also rose, albeit slightly. At the composite level, staffing levels increased modestly and at the fastest rate since May 2011."<br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWH
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Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-19141763368583338512013-02-08T09:02:00.002-08:002013-02-08T09:02:35.513-08:00Baidu Earnings Slower<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: blue;"><b>● Baidu Planet ●</b></span></div>
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wsg9u2tj92c/TWsI2bCxDLI/AAAAAAAAABw/ASyrOqd32kY/s1600/BaiduLogo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="149" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Wsg9u2tj92c/TWsI2bCxDLI/AAAAAAAAABw/ASyrOqd32kY/s200/BaiduLogo.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Baidu reported QE December 2012 financial results on February 4</span></div>
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<b><span style="color: blue;">Baidu Earnings Disappoint: Revenues Up, Margins Down</span></b></div>
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Baidu (BIDU) reported record revenues of RMB6.335 ($1.017 billion) for the quarter ending December 2012, but GAAP ($1.28) and non-GAAP ($1.31) earnings per share did not keep pace. Though both were the second best ever, the gross profit margin (68.5%) fell to an 11-quarter low preventing a push higher for earnings per share to a record. Lower margins offset higher revenues and resulted in lower income. This negatively impacted earnings per share. <a href="http://bit.ly/WPwBo4">Read more and see charts at Seeking Alpha</a>.</div>
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<b><span style="color: blue;">● Baidu Planet ●</span></b></div>
Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-39468598433549756292013-02-01T19:27:00.002-08:002013-02-11T14:58:44.809-08:00China Manufacturing Rises: "Gaining further steam"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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<i>The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.8 to 52.3 in January 2013, the highest since January 2011 (54.5).</i><br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=8&zx=x7vhha6lwjiu" /><br />
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Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “A higher reading of January final manufacturing PMI implies that China’s manufacturing activity is gaining further steam on the back of improving domestic conditions. We see increasing signals of a sustained growth recovery in the coming months: the steady investment growth led by infrastructure projects, the improving labour market conditions boosting consumer spending, and the ongoing re-stocking process to lift production growth.”<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are continue rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=5&zx=csp88e2m7hm1" /><br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-33265381769850439702013-01-26T13:01:00.003-08:002013-02-11T14:59:36.016-08:00China Manufacturing Rises to 2-Year High!<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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<i>The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.4 to 51.9 in January 2013, the highest since January 2011 (54.5).</i><br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=4&zx=u796no4zt2hh" /><br />
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Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “At 51.9, January’s HSBC China manufacturing PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to the highest level in two years, heralding a good start to the New Year. Thanks to the continuous gains in new business, manufacturers accelerated production by additional hiring and more purchases. Despite the still tepid external demand, the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery in the coming months.”<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdG9VaE1WanExUlRGMmt2bmtCMlMza3c&oid=2&zx=fdlclth45g2c" /><br />
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The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.<br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-44060857222101305192013-01-26T11:52:00.000-08:002013-01-26T11:52:01.502-08:00China LEI Increases: "Momentum may already be abating"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
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<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong><br />
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<i>The current December 2012 reading is a post-recession high.</i><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHFRYkpyeTByNVlJemZCYWZDSUZxUlE&oid=26&zx=e90k345nbh5j" /><br />
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“Growth in the LEI for China slowed in December. A decline in real estate activity, a drop in new export orders, and weak consumer confidence accounted for the slowing, while credit extension and improved conditions in the manufacturing supply chain offered only little support,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Growth in the CEI moderated as well, underscoring the notion that economic momentum may already be abating, and is unlikely to rebound much further in 2013. We expect China to grow at 7.5 percent this year, slightly down from the 7.8 percent increase in 2012.”<br />
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$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-38683703801788548952013-01-05T16:16:00.001-08:002013-02-11T15:00:38.386-08:00China Services Sector Expands<div style="text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RYpN9Pt9mt8/UOjAZF2lRtI/AAAAAAAAAHU/CuApBMyXDwc/s1600/ChinaBeijingSkyline.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RYpN9Pt9mt8/UOjAZF2lRtI/AAAAAAAAAHU/CuApBMyXDwc/s320/ChinaBeijingSkyline.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI, Services NMI, and Composite PMI by Month</strong><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction</span><br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=114&zx=4ixg6a87tlvk" /><br />
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<i>Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC</i>, said: "Despite the moderation of December’s headline services PMI, the underlying strength of services sectors improved in terms of stronger new business flows and employment growth. This, plus the further pick-up of manufacturing growth, suggests that China is on track for achieving around 8% y-o-y GDP growth recovery in 4Q".<br />
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Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-19637562453464798352012-12-31T08:37:00.000-08:002012-12-31T08:37:13.572-08:00China Manufacturing Expands to 19-Month High!<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.0 to 51.5 in December, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009.<br />
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This is the second consecutive month of expansion (greater than 50.0), after 12 consecutive months of contraction (less than 50.0) from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 18 months.<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. Manufacturing has now been expanding since October 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
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<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=113&zx=1ekzsaxy1la8" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "December’s final manufacturing PMI picked up for the fourth consecutive month to a 19 month high, thanks to the faster new business flows and the end of destocking. Such a momentum is likely to be sustained in the coming months when infrastructure construction runs into full speed and property market conditions stabilise. This, plus Beijing’s reiteration of keeping pro-growth policy in place into the coming year, should support a modest growth recovery of around 8.6% y-o-y in 2013, despite the ongoing external headwinds."<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=116&zx=qfrj8k2z33bf" /><br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-68782519026765247552012-12-25T15:21:00.002-08:002012-12-25T15:21:46.125-08:00China LEI Increases: "Economic rebound still appears fragile"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
<br />
<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong><br />
<br />
The current November 2012 reading is a post-recession high.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHFRYkpyeTByNVlJemZCYWZDSUZxUlE&oid=25&zx=89jhgvgbf4zg" /><br />
<br />
“Strength in China’s current economic activity has been maintained in November and all of the components in the Coincident Economic Index now posted gains,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “However, growth in the leading index decelerated slightly as real estate activity, consumer confidence and new export orders all contributed less to LEI growth in November than in October. Credit creation in the banking system remains the only consistent positive contributor to the LEI since early 2011. As a result, the sustainability of a broad based economic rebound still appears fragile heading into 2013.”<br />
<br />
$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-58426875067039434112012-12-13T21:24:00.000-08:002012-12-13T21:24:15.360-08:00China Manufacturing Expands to 14-Month High<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.4 to 50.9 in December, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the second expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=110&zx=kz84ie9zxnfo" /><br />
<br />
HongbinAs December flash manufacturing PMI picked up further to a 14 month high, it confirmed that China's ongoing growth recovery is gaining momentum mainly driven by domestic demand conditions. However, the drop of new export orders and the downside surprise of November exports growth suggest the persisting external headwinds. This calls for Beijing to keep an accommodative policy stance to counter-balance the external weakness, provided inflation stays benign”<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=112&zx=gpmk71grg4mx" /><br />
<br />
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.<br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-27458247515394557792012-12-13T21:11:00.001-08:002012-12-13T21:25:30.930-08:00China Manufacturing Rebounds in November<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.0 to 50.5 in November, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the first expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=106&zx=2kajt47hjlgm" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "The final November manufacturing PMI stood at a 13-month high of 50.5 on increasing new business and expanding production. This confirms that Chinese economy continues to recover gradually. We expect GDP growth to rebound modestly to around 8% in 4Q as the easing measures continue to filter through.”<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=105&zx=30pljvhq0cr9" /><br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-41568921918023218972012-11-25T06:30:00.002-08:002012-11-25T06:30:27.099-08:00China Manufacturing Rebounds to 13-Month High<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.9 to 50.4 in November, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the first expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=103&zx=77c46hpvzhki" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "As November’s flash reading of HSBC manufacturing PMI bounced back to the expansionary territory for the first time in 13 months, this confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end. However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile. This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery.”<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=102&zx=y3x1834m3d1o" /><br />
<br />
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.<br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-36626594429644683882012-11-24T16:54:00.000-08:002012-11-24T16:55:04.116-08:00China LEI Surges: "Moderate rebound underway"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
<br />
<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong><br />
<br />
The current October 2012 reading is a post-recession high.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHFRYkpyeTByNVlJemZCYWZDSUZxUlE&oid=22&zx=z90t7cbwynio" /><br />
<br />
“The LEI picked up momentum in October, suggesting a moderate rebound is underway that may carry into the first half of 2013,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Growth was driven primarily by renewed real estate activity and upbeat consumer expectations, two areas which have been highly volatile in recent months. As such, the strength and sustainability of the economy’s acceleration remains questionable. Meanwhile, the CEI showed its strongest and broadest growth in several months, aligning with a raft of recent data suggesting that the cyclical slowdown, which began in the second half of 2011, has likely passed its trough.”<br />
<br />
$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-18543881333790286392012-11-18T07:13:00.003-08:002012-11-18T07:13:33.977-08:00China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "Conditions deteriorate at marginal pace"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.6 to 49.5 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=99&zx=lwcwllk3wboo" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s final PMI rose to an eight-month high, implying that China’s industrial activity continues to bottom out following a modest pickup last month. This is mainly driven by the increase of new orders, thanks to the filteringthrough of the earlier easing measures, while exports outlook remains challenging. We expect a continuation of policy easing to further boost domestic demand and counterbalance the external weakness, leading to a gradual growth recovery in the coming quarters".<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=98&zx=hwzlcmjrx884" /><br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWH $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-16505832411503579812012-11-11T19:54:00.000-08:002012-11-11T19:54:16.445-08:00Baidu Earnings Review: Performance Rises to Another Record!<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=342" rel="attachment wp-att-342"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-342" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/BaiduLogo150x150.jpeg" title="BaiduLogo150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Baidu reported QE September 2012 financial results on October 29</span><br />
<br />
Baidu met the lower end of their Q3 revenue guidance (actual RMB6.251 vs. projected RMB6.245) and reported record quarterly total revenues, operating income, net income, cash flow per share, and earnings per share. Gross, operating, and net margins continue above historical averages. Financial position is strong and liquid.<br />
<br />
Although record performances continue to be reported and projected, the YoY growth rates for total revenues and earnings per share are slowing. The 10-quarter <em>averages</em> have been an incredible +76% and +98%, respectively. For the current Q3 these were +50% and +60%, respectively, which most companies and investors dream about. These historical growth rates are apparently impossible to maintain, even for Baidu.<br />
<br />
<strong>Baidu Outlook</strong> CEO Robin Li and CFO Jennifer Li are estimating a possible record Q4 revenues of RMB6.155 billion to RMB6.345 billion. This ranges from a QoQ possible decrease of -1.54% to a possible QoQ increase of +1.50%. This is an increase of 38% to 42% YoY but yet a continuing downtrend in long-term growth. That is how spectacular Baidu's growth has been, even though YoY revenue growth is slowing it is still vastly superior to mere mortal companies.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdDAtT3hISWRSRVhXTUhfekhHMFR2blE&oid=66&zx=b9ehbkmavkfv" /><br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdDAtT3hISWRSRVhXTUhfekhHMFR2blE&oid=65&zx=4mkc4p57w7ft" /><br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0Amp9CYPEK-wgdDAtT3hISWRSRVhXTUhfekhHMFR2blE&oid=70&zx=tdr5ef3t8wz1" /><br />
<br />
"We are pleased to report a solid performance for the third quarter driven by encouraging customer growth and improvements to our monetization platform," said Robin Li, chairman and chief executive officer of Baidu. "During the quarter, we worked to improve user experience by more closely integrating Baidu's suite of market-leading vertical products with Web search," continued Mr. Li. "Mobile and cloud represent our vision for the future of China's Internet, and Baidu will continue to proactively drive the development of this crucial ecosystem. We stand ready to meet the challenges and capture the opportunities the PC-to-mobile transition presents."<br />
<br />
Jennifer Li, Baidu's chief financial officer, commented, "In the third quarter, we saw solid profitability as we continued our strategy of investing in key areas of future growth, particularly mobile and cloud. In the quarters ahead, we will look to accelerate the pace of investment to achieve long-term, sustainable growth."<br />
<br />
$BIDUBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-14056549987760622702012-11-11T19:51:00.003-08:002012-11-11T19:51:41.922-08:00China LEI Edges Up: "Near-term outlook continues to be uncertain"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
<br />
The September 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose a slight +0.3 and +0.29% to 241.2 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index increased for the 5th consecutive month. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong> The current September 2012 reading is a post-recession high.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHFRYkpyeTByNVlJemZCYWZDSUZxUlE&oid=21&zx=p4ikjmrc6c0n" /><br />
<br />
Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The LEI’s very modest pickup in September, due in large part to a heavy drag from real estate, points to an economy that is unlikely to pick up rapidly in the near term. Credit extension and some tentative stabilization in the manufacturing sector buoyed the index – along with slightly improved export orders going into the West’s holiday season."<br />
<br />
"The real estate sector’s strong performance in August does not appear to have extended into September, a traditionally strong month for real estate transactions. Sharp increases in government-sponsored infrastructure spending should continue in the coming months, helping to support industrial and manufacturing activity, even as real estate activity remains weak. These volatile movements illustrate that the near-term outlook continues to be uncertain."<br />
<br />
$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEK $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-35627217834165207032012-11-11T19:49:00.002-08:002012-11-11T19:49:34.105-08:00China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "External Challenges"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.2 to 49.1 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=94&zx=nu45yaqo6jtm" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s flash PMI reading continues to recover for the second month, thanks in part to a gradual improvement in the new orders index which picked up to a six-month high (albeit marginally below 50). This is helped by the filtering-through of the earlier easing measures. However, external challenges are still abound and the pressures on job market are lingering. This calls for a continuation of policy easing in the coming months to secure a firmer growth recovery".<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=95&zx=1ep61laxuca" /><br />
<br />
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.<br />
<br />
$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWH $MACROBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-87087654197539196342012-10-20T10:59:00.002-07:002012-10-20T10:59:52.625-07:00China Manufacturing Slowdown Confirmed: "Sharper contraction of new export orders"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
<br />
The HSBC China Manufacturing Final Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.3 to 47.9 in September, just above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. New export orders plunged at the fastest rate in 42 months. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 11th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 14 of the past 15 months.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=89&zx=j0gyvgbupjiq" /><br />
<br />
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Chinese manufacturing growth is likely to be bottoming out. However, the sharper contraction of new export orders and the lingering pressures on job markets mean that Beijing should step up easing to support growth and employment. Fiscal measures should play a more important role in the coming months."<br />
<br />
<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
<br />
<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=91&zx=u7ybuzqlxkyg" /><br />
<br />
$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEKBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-37842097883647691122012-09-30T10:18:00.000-07:002012-09-30T10:18:32.334-07:00China LEI Spikes: "Raises expectations for moderate rebound in growth"<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s1600/ChineseDragon.jpg" style="margin-left: 0em; margin-right: 0em;"><img alt="" border="0" height="155" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-XbHb4H2j6t0/TWKy2Xv7K7I/AAAAAAAAABs/Xm1ykPhhUCY/s200/ChineseDragon.jpg" width="200" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index</span><br />
<br />
The August 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose a strong +4.0 and +1.69% to 240.4 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index increased for the 4th consecutive month. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased.<br />
<br />
<strong>China Monthly LEI</strong> The current August 2012 reading is a post-recession high.<br />
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<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AuySOShoUUBtdHFRYkpyeTByNVlJemZCYWZDSUZxUlE&oid=18&zx=smzo0z58nes4" /><br />
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Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The improvement in the China LEI in August raises expectations for a moderate rebound in growth, even as current economic conditions remain subdued. The LEI’s largest increase in seven months was primarily due to a rebound in real estate activity, with strong credit growth and an improvement in consumer expectations also adding to the uptick. The manufacturing and trade sectors continued to underperform. Despite the somewhat improved outlook, recent LEI trends suggest the rebound in real estate may be tenuous and uncertainty around credit-led growth remains a concern."<br />
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$CHIX $EEM $EWH $EWS $FXI $GXC $PEKBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-60306834649877085542012-09-23T23:45:00.002-07:002012-09-23T23:50:02.650-07:00Corporate Accounting: Can You Trust China?<div style="text-align: center;">
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<strong><span style="color: blue;">Can You Trust China?</span></strong></div>
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Steve Orlins, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, explains why corporate accounting in China should not to be trusted. CNBC's Jeff Cox joins the discussion.</div>
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<strong style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">China’s Corporate Governance Draws More Fire</span></strong></div>
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HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Concern over Chinese corporate governance is growing, with one major Hong Kong brokerage warning of increased risks of corporate fraud as the economy slows, and a noted investor casting doubt on China’s accounting.</div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">CLSA head of Asia research Amar Gill said he was concerned that many of China’s publicly listed companies could undergo an increase in abuses, with the potential for some insiders to drain such companies of cash as if they were personal ATM machines.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Gill warned financial strains weighing on individual investors could result in cases where “controlling shareholders will use listed companies to bail out their private interests.” Gill made the remarks at a news conference to announce the results of CLSA’s 2012 report on corporate governance in Asia.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">In the report, China ranked ninth of 11 markets tracked for the year, trailing behind South Korea, but ahead of the Philippines and Indonesia. China scored 45 on the 100 point scale, slipping 4 points from its previous ranking, completed in 2010.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">“While economic conditions are still tough, you have more likely a negative scenario for corporate-governance surprises, and so if I had to guess for the next year, more likely than not, the average score for Chinese companies will be slightly lower,” Gill said.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">The report, conducted in association with the Asia Corporate Governance Association (ACGA), examined 864 companies listed on markets within the Asia-Pacific region. Singapore ranked highest, followed by Hong Kong, Thailand and Japan.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Jamie Allen a representative from the ACGA, said there were also instances where Chinese companies were able to use state-secrecy laws to shield their books from scrutiny. He said the rules were at odds with the need for independent scrutiny of publicly listed companies. “</span><i style="text-align: center;">Should a company be listed if auditors are not allowed to do their job?</i><span style="text-align: center;">” Allen asked.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">The report coincided with sharp criticism of Chinese corporate and government data by famed short-seller and head of Kynikos Associates, Jim Chanos.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Chanos told CNBC in an interview that he sees Chinese economic data as inaccurate and often manipulated, with corporate numbers equally unreliable, echoing longstanding criticism among some investors.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">“</span><i style="text-align: center;">I would take issue with almost any corporate accounting in China. It is that bad</i><span style="text-align: center;">,” Chanos said.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">He said Western capital flowing into China was unlikely to return, describing the nation as “</span><i style="text-align: center;">a classic emerging-market Roach Motel, except it’s a really big one. ... It’s very difficult to earn adequate returns for capital and get your capital back</i><span style="text-align: center;">,” he said.</span></div>
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</div>Baidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-951329914230948182.post-47497636851677997102012-09-21T19:23:00.002-07:002012-09-21T19:23:39.674-07:00China Manufacturing Contracts for 11th Consecutive Month: "Remains lackluster"<a href="http://ospreyflyer.com/?attachment_id=730" rel="attachment wp-att-730"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-730" height="150" src="http://ospreyflyer.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/ChinaFlag150x150.jpg" title="ChinaFlag150x150" width="150" /></a><br />
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The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.2 to 47.8 in September, just above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 11th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 14 of the past 15 months.<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI by Month</strong> Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
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<img alt="" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0ArxpSzevQak7dFNkMnBFWDJBZkZqSlJURkcxMkhvWEE&oid=85&zx=sdt99dxh9bzz" /><br />
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Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "China’s manufacturing growth is still slowing, but the pace of slowdown is stabilising. Manufacturing activities remain lacklustre, thanks to weak new business flows and a longer than expected destocking process. And this is adding more pressures to the labour market and has prompted Beijing to step up easing over the past weeks. The recent easing measures should be working to lead to a modest improvement from 4Q onwards.”.<br />
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<strong>China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages</strong> The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.<br />
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The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.<br />
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$FXI $GXC $PEK $EEM $EWHBaidu Planethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01229852594790157331noreply@blogger.com0