China Manufacturing Slows: "Pace of recovery is mild"

China Manufacturing PMI by Month
Current Index: 50.4
Chart High: 54.5 (January 2011)
Chart Low: 47.6 (August 2012)
The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The final February HSBC manufacturing PMI suggests a slower pace of expansion. But China's recovery continues on improving domestic demand conditions and the labour market. The pace of ongoing recovery is mild, implying no need for the PBoC to tighten policy any time soon."

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China Manufacturing Expansion Slows: "Gradual Recovery"

China Manufacturing PMI by Month
Current Index: 50.4 (Flash Estimate)
Chart High: 54.5 (January 2011)
Chart Low: 47.6 (August 2012)
The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The Chinese economy is still on track for a gradual recovery. Despite the moderation of February’s flash PMI, the index recorded the fourth consecutive reading above the 50 critical line. The underlying strength of Chinese growth recovery remains intact, as indicated by the still expanding employment and the recent pick-up of credit growth."

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages
3-Months: 51.4
6-Months: 50.4
12-Months: 49.4
The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



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Chinese Economy and Employment Expands

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China Manufacturing PMI, Services NMI, and Composite PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Services activities resumed faster expansion on rising new business flows, along with the recovery of manufacturing growth. Still solid job gains plus higher business expectations bode well for further improvement of services sectors’ growth. Following the growth bottoming out in 4Q 2012, China’s growth recovery is now on a firmer footing."

Chinese Employment Expands "Staff numbers increased at a marked pace in the service sector during January, despite the rate of job creation having slowed from the previous month. Employment levels in the manufacturing sector also rose, albeit slightly. At the composite level, staffing levels increased modestly and at the fastest rate since May 2011."

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China Manufacturing Rises: "Gaining further steam"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.8 to 52.3 in January 2013, the highest since January 2011 (54.5).

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “A higher reading of January final manufacturing PMI implies that China’s manufacturing activity is gaining further steam on the back of improving domestic conditions. We see increasing signals of a sustained growth recovery in the coming months: the steady investment growth led by infrastructure projects, the improving labour market conditions boosting consumer spending, and the ongoing re-stocking process to lift production growth.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are continue rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



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China Manufacturing Rises to 2-Year High!

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.4 to 51.9 in January 2013, the highest since January 2011 (54.5).

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the Flash China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “At 51.9, January’s HSBC China manufacturing PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to the highest level in two years, heralding a good start to the New Year. Thanks to the continuous gains in new business, manufacturers accelerated production by additional hiring and more purchases. Despite the still tepid external demand, the domestic-driven restocking process is likely to add steam to China's ongoing recovery in the coming months.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Expands to 19-Month High!

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.0 to 51.5 in December, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009.

This is the second consecutive month of expansion (greater than 50.0), after 12 consecutive months of contraction (less than 50.0) from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 18 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. Manufacturing has now been expanding since October 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "December’s final manufacturing PMI picked up for the fourth consecutive month to a 19 month high, thanks to the faster new business flows and the end of destocking. Such a momentum is likely to be sustained in the coming months when infrastructure construction runs into full speed and property market conditions stabilise. This, plus Beijing’s reiteration of keeping pro-growth policy in place into the coming year, should support a modest growth recovery of around 8.6% y-o-y in 2013, despite the ongoing external headwinds."

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



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China Manufacturing Expands to 14-Month High

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.4 to 50.9 in December, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the second expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



HongbinAs December flash manufacturing PMI picked up further to a 14 month high, it confirmed that China's ongoing growth recovery is gaining momentum mainly driven by domestic demand conditions. However, the drop of new export orders and the downside surprise of November exports growth suggest the persisting external headwinds. This calls for Beijing to keep an accommodative policy stance to counter-balance the external weakness, provided inflation stays benign”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Rebounds in November

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.0 to 50.5 in November, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the first expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "The final November manufacturing PMI stood at a 13-month high of 50.5 on increasing new business and expanding production. This confirms that Chinese economy continues to recover gradually. We expect GDP growth to rebound modestly to around 8% in 4Q as the easing measures continue to filter through.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



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China Manufacturing Rebounds to 13-Month High

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.9 to 50.4 in November, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the first expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "As November’s flash reading of HSBC manufacturing PMI bounced back to the expansionary territory for the first time in 13 months, this confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end. However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile. This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "Conditions deteriorate at marginal pace"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.6 to 49.5 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s final PMI rose to an eight-month high, implying that China’s industrial activity continues to bottom out following a modest pickup last month. This is mainly driven by the increase of new orders, thanks to the filteringthrough of the earlier easing measures, while exports outlook remains challenging. We expect a continuation of policy easing to further boost domestic demand and counterbalance the external weakness, leading to a gradual growth recovery in the coming quarters".

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



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China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "External Challenges"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.2 to 49.1 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s flash PMI reading continues to recover for the second month, thanks in part to a gradual improvement in the new orders index which picked up to a six-month high (albeit marginally below 50). This is helped by the filtering-through of the earlier easing measures. However, external challenges are still abound and the pressures on job market are lingering. This calls for a continuation of policy easing in the coming months to secure a firmer growth recovery".

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Slowdown Confirmed: "Sharper contraction of new export orders"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Final Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.3 to 47.9 in September, just above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. New export orders plunged at the fastest rate in 42 months. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 11th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 14 of the past 15 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Chinese manufacturing growth is likely to be bottoming out. However, the sharper contraction of new export orders and the lingering pressures on job markets mean that Beijing should step up easing to support growth and employment. Fiscal measures should play a more important role in the coming months."

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



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China Manufacturing Contracts for 11th Consecutive Month: "Remains lackluster"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.2 to 47.8 in September, just above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 11th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 14 of the past 15 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "China’s manufacturing growth is still slowing, but the pace of slowdown is stabilising. Manufacturing activities remain lacklustre, thanks to weak new business flows and a longer than expected destocking process. And this is adding more pressures to the labour market and has prompted Beijing to step up easing over the past weeks. The recent easing measures should be working to lead to a modest improvement from 4Q onwards.”.

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Contracts for 10th Consecutive Month: "Intensifying downward pressure"

China Manufacturing PMI by Month



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "The final reading of the HSBC manufacturing PMI (August) confirmed that China's manufacturing sector still faces intensifying downward pressure. New export orders contracted at the fastest pace since March 2009, this, combined with a record high in stocks of finished goods sub-index, and a 41-month low employment index, suggests China's exporters are facing increasing difficulties amid stronger global headwinds. Beijing must step up policy easing to stabilize growth and foster job market conditions".

China Manufacturing PMI Series Moving Average



Chinese Job Losses Continue "Staff numbers in the Chinese goods producing sector decreased during August, with the rate of job shedding the fastest in 41 months. The latest decrease in headcounts was the sixth in as many months. Reduced employment in part reflected falling new order volumes."

China Manufacturing Shrinks: "Struggling with strong global headwinds"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, decreased -1.5 to 47.8 in August, a 9-month low. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 10th consecutive month below 50, which indicates contraction.

The reading is just above the 32-month low of 47.7 in November 2011. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in manufacturing. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 13 of the past 14 months.

China Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The short, intermediate, and long-term trends are now decreasing. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Falling orders dragged down the August flash PMI to a nine-month low, suggesting Chinese producers are still struggling with strong global headwinds. To achieve the stated policy goal of stabilizing growth and the jobs market, Beijing must step up policy easing to lift infrastructure investment in the coming months".



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Contracts: "External markets continuing to deteriorate"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, indicated ongoing manufacturing contraction in July. The PMI did increase +1.1 to 49.3, a 5-month high, which indicates a slowing of the contraction.

The reading is above the 32-month low of 47.7 in November 2011. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in manufacturing. The China Manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 9 consecutive months and for 12 of the past 13 months.

Another PMI, by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, dipped -0.1 to 50.1 in July, indicating near stagnation. This contradicts the HSBC China PMI. What to make of this? How about averaging them. The two contrasting PMI’s averaged together are 49.7, which indicates a slight contraction for China manufacturing. There has been some recent questioning of the CFLP PMI being overstated.

China Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The short, intermediate, and long-term trends are now level. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Final manufacturing PMI confirmed only a modest improvement of manufacturing conditions thanks to the initial effect of the earlier easing measures. But this is far from inspiring, as China’s growth slowdown has not been reversed meaningfully and downside pressures persist with external markets continuing to deteriorate. We still expect Beijing to step up policy easing in the coming months to support growth and employment".



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China Manufacturing Contracts: "Demand still remaining weak"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.3 to 49.5 in July, a 5-month high. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 9th consecutive month below 50, which indicates contraction.

The reading is above the 32-month low of 47.7 in November 2011. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in manufacturing. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 12 of the past 13 months.

China Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The short, intermediate, and long-term trends are now level. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "July's headline PMI picked up modestly to a five-month high of 49.5, suggesting that the earlier easing measures are starting to work. That said, the below-50 July reading implied demand still remaining weak and employment under increasing pressure. This calls for more easing efforts to support growth and jobs. We believe the fast falling inflation allows Beijing to do so and a more meaningful improvement of growth is expected in the coming months when these measures fully filter through".



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China Manufacturing Contracts to 7-Month Low: "Lack of Demand"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, decreased -0.2 to 48.2 in June, a 7-month low. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 8th consecutive month below 50, which indicates contraction. The reading is above the 32-month low of 47.7 in November 2011. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in manufacturing. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 11 of the past 12 months.

Another PMI, by the Chinese Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, dipped -0.2 to 50.2 in June, indicating near stagnation. This contradicts the HSBC China PMI. What to make of this? How about averaging them. The two contrasting PMI’s averaged together are 49.2, which indicates a slight contraction for China manufacturing. There has been some recent questioning of the CFLP PMI being overstated.

China Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The short, intermediate, and long-term trends are downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & CoHead of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "It is all about growth and employment. As external demand has weakened and domestic demand hasn't shown a meaningful improvement in response to earlier easing measures, growth is likely to be on track for further slowdown, hence weighing on the jobs market. But as inflation eases sharply, Beijing has plenty of room and policy ammunition to avoid a hard landing. We expect more decisive easing efforts to come through in the coming months."





USA Manufacturing Contracts in June to 35-Month Low!

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