Thursday, April 21, 2011

China Monthly Leading Economic Index Increases (Chart) *Just below post-recession high*

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The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

Official Statement by The Conference Board Beijing, April 19, 2011 - The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 0.3 percent in February to 155.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January and a 0.5 percent decline in December. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in February. Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “The LEI for China slowed noticeably in February compared to late 2010, pointing to tighter macroeconomic policies taking effect and moderating economic activity in 2011. Scarcer credit and a softening real estate market will create a drag on investment activity in coming months. Consumer expectations have reached their lowest level since April 2009 – probably a reaction to intensifying inflation, raising concerns over spending growth. Manufacturing employment also showed some signs of weakness in the first two months of the year.”

Trend The trend has been upwards with December 2010 the only decrease. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010.

Cycle History (Beginning in January 2010) The intermediate-term and cyclical high has been 155.4 in November 2010. The intermediate-term and cyclical low has been 142.8 in January 2010.

China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index from January 2010 through the latest month reported.

Commentary China continues phenomenal economic growth and the February LEI of 155.3 is just below the November 2010 peak of 155.4. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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