Official Statement by The Conference Board Beijing, May 13, 2011 - The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 1.0 percent in March to 157.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in both February and January. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in March. Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: “After two months of small increases, the large increase in the LEI for China in March points to continued economic expansion in 2011. Combined with an uptick in the coincident economic index, the leading indicators suggest that risks of a hard landing for China's economy in 2011 may be easing. However, growth will likely remain slower than during the second half of 2010. In March, improving consumer expectations and construction activity offset slack in the manufacturing supply chain and declining export orders.”
Trend The short-term trend has been upwards with December 2010 the only decrease. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010. Both the intermediate-term (6 months) and long-term (12 months) trends are upwards.
Cycle History (Beginning in January 2010) The intermediate-term and cyclical high has been 157.0 in March 2011. The intermediate-term and cyclical low has been 142.8 in January 2010.
China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index from January 2010 through the latest month reported.
Commentary China continues phenomenal economic growth and the March Monthly Leading Economic Index of 157.0 is a new high, exceeding the previous November 2010 peak of 155.4. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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