Monday, August 15, 2011

China Leading Economic Index Rises to New High! (Chart) "Risk of near-term hard landing is easing"

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The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

Official Statement by The Conference Board Beijing, August 15, 2011 - The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 1.0 percent in June to 158.9 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in May and a 0.3 percent increase in April. Five of the six components contributed positively to the index in June. Says Jing Sima, economist for The Conference Board: “The LEI for China rose sharply in June, combined with a strong gain in the coincident economic index, suggesting that risk of a near-term hard landing is easing. However, the economy will likely grow at a slower pace than last year, as China continues to tighten monetary policy and investment growth correspondingly moderates. In June, the consumer expectations index improved markedly and was a major driver of the LEI gain, while continued solid industrial output was a major driver of the CEI uptick .”

Trend The short-term trend has been upwards with 6 consecutive monthly increases. The intermediate-term trend (6-month moving average) continues upwards. The long-term trend (12-month moving average) continues upwards.

Cycle History (Beginning in January 2010) The intermediate-term and cyclical high has been the current 158.9 in June 2011. The intermediate-term and cyclical low has been 142.8 in January 2010.

China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index from January 2010 through the latest month reported.

Commentary The China Monthly Leading Economic Index is at a new high of 158.9  in June 2011. Overall, moderate and continuing economic growth is forecast for the remainder of 2011. A small slowdown in 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) is anticipated. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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