Baidu Planet: November 2011

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The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

Official Statement by The Conference Board (Beijing, November 17, 2011) The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China increased 0.4 percent in September to 160.2 (2004 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in both August and July. Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in September. Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Andrew Polk: “Economic activity in China remains robust, but that pace of growth should continue to ease in the near term, according to the China LEI in September. Policy tightening, particularly in real estate, has persisted in cooling the main drivers to growth throughout this year - property investment and bank loans - and weakness in developed markets continues to weigh on external demand for China, adding another drag to growth. ”

Trend The short-term trend has been upwards with 9 consecutive monthly increases. The intermediate-term trend and the long-term trend continues upwards.

Cycle History (Beginning in January 2010) The intermediate-term and cyclical high has been the current 160.2 in September 2011. The intermediate-term and cyclical low has been 142.8 in January 2010.

China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index from January 2010 through the latest month reported.

Commentary The China Monthly Leading Economic Index is at a new high of 160.2 (preliminary) in September 2011. Some of the prior months were revised downwards slightly. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast in the near-term. A small slowdown in 2011, compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY), is anticipated. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:

* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)

* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)

* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)

About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

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