Friday, August 24, 2012

China LEI Rises: "Main driver was government loans"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

China Monthly LEI The current July 2012 reading is a post-recession high and an increase in the growth rate.

Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The Conference Board LEI for China increased again in July. The main driver was government loans to boost banks in financing infrastructure investment. Falling prices gave an important boost to loan growth, as the latter was measured in real terms. The small increase in the CEI, a measure of current conditions, reflects some improvement in industrial production, retail sales and electricity production, suggesting that current economic conditions are stabilizing. Although other leading indicators, such as real estate, exports and consumer sentiment, remained weak through July, the leading and current indicators point to a modest rebound in the second half of 2012."


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