Sunday, September 30, 2012

China LEI Spikes: "Raises expectations for moderate rebound in growth"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

The August 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose a strong +4.0 and +1.69% to 240.4 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index increased for the 4th consecutive month. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased.

China Monthly LEI The current August 2012 reading is a post-recession high.

Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The improvement in the China LEI in August raises expectations for a moderate rebound in growth, even as current economic conditions remain subdued. The LEI’s largest increase in seven months was primarily due to a rebound in real estate activity, with strong credit growth and an improvement in consumer expectations also adding to the uptick. The manufacturing and trade sectors continued to underperform. Despite the somewhat improved outlook, recent LEI trends suggest the rebound in real estate may be tenuous and uncertainty around credit-led growth remains a concern."


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