Thursday, December 13, 2012

China Manufacturing Expands to 14-Month High

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.4 to 50.9 in December, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August 2012. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the second expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.

HongbinAs December flash manufacturing PMI picked up further to a 14 month high, it confirmed that China's ongoing growth recovery is gaining momentum mainly driven by domestic demand conditions. However, the drop of new export orders and the downside surprise of November exports growth suggest the persisting external headwinds. This calls for Beijing to keep an accommodative policy stance to counter-balance the external weakness, provided inflation stays benign”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.


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