China Manufacturing Expansion Slows: "Gradual Recovery"

China Manufacturing PMI by Month
Current Index: 50.4 (Flash Estimate)
Chart High: 54.5 (January 2011)
Chart Low: 47.6 (August 2012)
The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: "The Chinese economy is still on track for a gradual recovery. Despite the moderation of February’s flash PMI, the index recorded the fourth consecutive reading above the 50 critical line. The underlying strength of Chinese growth recovery remains intact, as indicated by the still expanding employment and the recent pick-up of credit growth."

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages
3-Months: 51.4
6-Months: 50.4
12-Months: 49.4
The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



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China LEI Increases: "Economic rebound continues to look modest"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

China Monthly LEI

Current Leading Index: 253.4
Current Coincident Index: 233.7
Post-Recession LEI High: 253.4 (January 2013)
Post-Recession CEI High: 233.7 (January 2013)



Says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing: “January’s acceleration in the LEI was driven primarily by consumer expectations and estimated real estate activity, both of which were likely positively affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Credit extension also contributed to the increase in the LEI. Despite the seasonal uptick in some components, recent gains in the LEI have become less widespread and the current rebound in economic activity continues to look modest.”

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Jim Rogers: The Rise of China and the Asian Century

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Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers on China's Ascension, Wall Street's Downfall, and Obama's Failures

Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings and author of "Street Smarts," tells Reuters Consumer News Editor Chrystia Freeland that China will ride out internal issues to lead the world. Rogers also says that Wall Street's ways will erode its stature and President Obama's ideas for reviving the economy will fail.

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Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets by Jim Rogers

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Chinese Economy and Employment Expands

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China Manufacturing PMI, Services NMI, and Composite PMI by Month
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "Services activities resumed faster expansion on rising new business flows, along with the recovery of manufacturing growth. Still solid job gains plus higher business expectations bode well for further improvement of services sectors’ growth. Following the growth bottoming out in 4Q 2012, China’s growth recovery is now on a firmer footing."

Chinese Employment Expands "Staff numbers increased at a marked pace in the service sector during January, despite the rate of job creation having slowed from the previous month. Employment levels in the manufacturing sector also rose, albeit slightly. At the composite level, staffing levels increased modestly and at the fastest rate since May 2011."

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Baidu Earnings Slower

● Baidu Planet ●

Baidu reported QE December 2012 financial results on February 4

Baidu Earnings Disappoint: Revenues Up, Margins Down

Baidu (BIDU) reported record revenues of RMB6.335 ($1.017 billion) for the quarter ending December 2012, but GAAP ($1.28) and non-GAAP ($1.31) earnings per share did not keep pace. Though both were the second best ever, the gross profit margin (68.5%) fell to an 11-quarter low preventing a push higher for earnings per share to a record. Lower margins offset higher revenues and resulted in lower income. This negatively impacted earnings per share. Read more and see charts at Seeking Alpha.

● Baidu Planet ●

China Manufacturing Rises: "Gaining further steam"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.8 to 52.3 in January 2013, the highest since January 2011 (54.5).

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began expanding, an Index reading of greater than 50, in November 2012. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI survey, Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC said: “A higher reading of January final manufacturing PMI implies that China’s manufacturing activity is gaining further steam on the back of improving domestic conditions. We see increasing signals of a sustained growth recovery in the coming months: the steady investment growth led by infrastructure projects, the improving labour market conditions boosting consumer spending, and the ongoing re-stocking process to lift production growth.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are continue rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.
PMI > 50.0 is expansion, PMI < 50.0 is contraction



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