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China Monthly Leading Economic Index Dips in December
Official Statement by The Conference Board The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China declined 0.5 percent in December to 154.3 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in November and a 0.8 percent increase in October. Three of the six components contributed positively to the index in December. Says Jing Sima, economist for The Conference Board: “Both the LEI and CEI for China fell in December for the first time since 2008. Although the upward trend of each index is moderating, it is too early to tell if this will translate into a slowdown in economic activity. The Chinese economy is unlikely to accelerate sharply in the near term. While the construction and consumer sectors are weakening, growth in the industrial sector remains strong.”
Trend The trend has been upwards from January through November 2010. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010.
Cycle History The November 2010 (preliminary) reading of 155.1 has been the recent high.
China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index for the latest 12 months, from January 2010 through December 2010.
Commentary Even with the December decrease, China continues phenomenal economic growth. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
More Charts and Analysis!
Trend The trend has been upwards from January through November 2010. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010.
Cycle History The November 2010 (preliminary) reading of 155.1 has been the recent high.
China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index for the latest 12 months, from January 2010 through December 2010.
Commentary Even with the December decrease, China continues phenomenal economic growth. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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