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China Monthly Leading Economic Index Increases in January
Official Statement by The Conference Board Beijing, March 16, 2011…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for China increased 0.3 percent in January to 155.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.5 percent decline in December and a 0.5 percent increase in November. Two of the six components contributed positively to the index in January. Says The Conference Board China Center resident economist Bill Adams: "The LEI’s modest increase in January, following a large decline in December, points to slower economic expansion in coming months. In January, consumer expectations continued to fall, probably related to rising inflation. Weakening consumer sentiment, tighter credit, and lower export orders were offset by a large rebound in construction activity."
Trend The trend has been upwards with December 2010 the only decrease. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010.
Cycle History The November 2010 (preliminary) reading of 155.4 has been the intermediate term high and the January 2010 reading of 142.8 has been the intermediate term low.
China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index for the latest 13 months, from January 2010 through January 2011.
Commentary China continues phenomenal economic growth and the January LEI of 155.0 is just below the November 2010 peak of 155.4. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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Trend The trend has been upwards with December 2010 the only decrease. The December decrease was the only dip in 2010.
Cycle History The November 2010 (preliminary) reading of 155.4 has been the intermediate term high and the January 2010 reading of 142.8 has been the intermediate term low.
China Monthly Leading Economic Index (Chart) Below is a chart of the China Monthly Leading Economic Index for the latest 13 months, from January 2010 through January 2011.
Commentary China continues phenomenal economic growth and the January LEI of 155.0 is just below the November 2010 peak of 155.4. Whether there will be a slowdown in Q1 2011 compared to the strong 2010 GDP growth (+10.3% YoY) remains to be seen. China is now the second largest economy in the world as reviewed here [China Now Second Largest Economy in the World (Video, GDP Chart) *Surpasses Japan as #2*]
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for China was launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of China. The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for China include:
* Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People’s Bank of China)
* 5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply Index (source: People’s Bank of China)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
* NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source: National Bureau of Statistics)
About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.
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