China LEI Rises: "Stabilization of economy will remain tenuous"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

China Monthly LEI The current June 2012 reading is a post-recession high, but growth is slowing.



Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "In June, the month-on-month growth rate of the China LEI slowed significantly with all components except bank loans declining. Overall, the short term trend in the leading economic index indicates that economic activity is still policy - and credit -led. Bank credit expansion has been the only consistently rising leading index component over the last six months. Coupled with slowing and volatile (month-on-month) growth in the CEI for China, the composite indexes suggest that the real economy is not showing any material rebound, and that this situation is likely to persist for several months to come. Until monetary loosening passes through to fuel real economic activity and boost private sector demand, the stabilization of the economy will remain tenuous"

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