Sunday, November 11, 2012

China LEI Edges Up: "Near-term outlook continues to be uncertain"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

The September 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose a slight +0.3 and +0.29% to 241.2 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index increased for the 5th consecutive month. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased.

China Monthly LEI The current September 2012 reading is a post-recession high.

Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The LEI’s very modest pickup in September, due in large part to a heavy drag from real estate, points to an economy that is unlikely to pick up rapidly in the near term. Credit extension and some tentative stabilization in the manufacturing sector buoyed the index – along with slightly improved export orders going into the West’s holiday season."

"The real estate sector’s strong performance in August does not appear to have extended into September, a traditionally strong month for real estate transactions. Sharp increases in government-sponsored infrastructure spending should continue in the coming months, helping to support industrial and manufacturing activity, even as real estate activity remains weak. These volatile movements illustrate that the near-term outlook continues to be uncertain."


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