Sunday, November 11, 2012

China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "External Challenges"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.2 to 49.1 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.

Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s flash PMI reading continues to recover for the second month, thanks in part to a gradual improvement in the new orders index which picked up to a six-month high (albeit marginally below 50). This is helped by the filtering-through of the earlier easing measures. However, external challenges are still abound and the pressures on job market are lingering. This calls for a continuation of policy easing in the coming months to secure a firmer growth recovery".

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.


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