China Manufacturing Rebounds to 13-Month High

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +0.9 to 50.4 in November, well above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. This is the first expansion (greater than 50.0) since October 2011 (51.0). There had been 12 consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction, from November 2011 to October 2012. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 17 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "As November’s flash reading of HSBC manufacturing PMI bounced back to the expansionary territory for the first time in 13 months, this confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year end. However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile. This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery.”

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends have reversed and are now rising. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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China LEI Surges: "Moderate rebound underway"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

China Monthly LEI

The current October 2012 reading is a post-recession high.



“The LEI picked up momentum in October, suggesting a moderate rebound is underway that may carry into the first half of 2013,” says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing. “Growth was driven primarily by renewed real estate activity and upbeat consumer expectations, two areas which have been highly volatile in recent months. As such, the strength and sustainability of the economy’s acceleration remains questionable. Meanwhile, the CEI showed its strongest and broadest growth in several months, aligning with a raft of recent data suggesting that the cyclical slowdown, which began in the second half of 2011, has likely passed its trough.”

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China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "Conditions deteriorate at marginal pace"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.6 to 49.5 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s final PMI rose to an eight-month high, implying that China’s industrial activity continues to bottom out following a modest pickup last month. This is mainly driven by the increase of new orders, thanks to the filteringthrough of the earlier easing measures, while exports outlook remains challenging. We expect a continuation of policy easing to further boost domestic demand and counterbalance the external weakness, leading to a gradual growth recovery in the coming quarters".

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



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Baidu Earnings Review: Performance Rises to Another Record!

Baidu reported QE September 2012 financial results on October 29

Baidu met the lower end of their Q3 revenue guidance (actual RMB6.251 vs. projected RMB6.245) and reported record quarterly total revenues, operating income, net income, cash flow per share, and earnings per share. Gross, operating, and net margins continue above historical averages. Financial position is strong and liquid.

Although record performances continue to be reported and projected, the YoY growth rates for total revenues and earnings per share are slowing. The 10-quarter averages have been an incredible +76% and +98%, respectively. For the current Q3 these were +50% and +60%, respectively, which most companies and investors dream about. These historical growth rates are apparently impossible to maintain, even for Baidu.

Baidu Outlook CEO Robin Li and CFO Jennifer Li are estimating a possible record Q4 revenues of RMB6.155 billion to RMB6.345 billion. This ranges from a QoQ possible decrease of -1.54% to a possible QoQ increase of +1.50%. This is an increase of 38% to 42% YoY but yet a continuing downtrend in long-term growth. That is how spectacular Baidu's growth has been, even though YoY revenue growth is slowing it is still vastly superior to mere mortal companies.







"We are pleased to report a solid performance for the third quarter driven by encouraging customer growth and improvements to our monetization platform," said Robin Li, chairman and chief executive officer of Baidu. "During the quarter, we worked to improve user experience by more closely integrating Baidu's suite of market-leading vertical products with Web search," continued Mr. Li. "Mobile and cloud represent our vision for the future of China's Internet, and Baidu will continue to proactively drive the development of this crucial ecosystem. We stand ready to meet the challenges and capture the opportunities the PC-to-mobile transition presents."

Jennifer Li, Baidu's chief financial officer, commented, "In the third quarter, we saw solid profitability as we continued our strategy of investing in key areas of future growth, particularly mobile and cloud. In the quarters ahead, we will look to accelerate the pace of investment to achieve long-term, sustainable growth."

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China LEI Edges Up: "Near-term outlook continues to be uncertain"

The Conference Board: China Monthly Leading Economic Index

The September 2012 China Monthly Leading Economic Index rose a slight +0.3 and +0.29% to 241.2 (preliminary), another post-recession high. The China Monthly Coincident Economic Index increased for the 5th consecutive month. Overall, continuing economic growth is forecast, but volatility and uncertainty has increased.

China Monthly LEI The current September 2012 reading is a post-recession high.



Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference Board China Center in Beijing, said "The LEI’s very modest pickup in September, due in large part to a heavy drag from real estate, points to an economy that is unlikely to pick up rapidly in the near term. Credit extension and some tentative stabilization in the manufacturing sector buoyed the index – along with slightly improved export orders going into the West’s holiday season."

"The real estate sector’s strong performance in August does not appear to have extended into September, a traditionally strong month for real estate transactions. Sharp increases in government-sponsored infrastructure spending should continue in the coming months, helping to support industrial and manufacturing activity, even as real estate activity remains weak. These volatile movements illustrate that the near-term outlook continues to be uncertain."

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China Manufacturing Contracts for 12th Consecutive Month: "External Challenges"

The HSBC China Manufacturing Flash Purchasing Managers' Index, compiled by Markit, increased +1.2 to 49.1 in October, above the 41-month low of 47.6 in August. That was the lowest since March 2009. A contraction was expected and ongoing slowdowns are projected. This is the 12th consecutive month below 50, which indicates sector contraction. The China Manufacturing PMI has been just below 50 for 15 of the past 16 months.

China Manufacturing PMI by Month Manufacturing began contracting, an Index reading of less than 50, in July 2011. The chart peak was 55.3 in November 2010. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC, said: "October’s flash PMI reading continues to recover for the second month, thanks in part to a gradual improvement in the new orders index which picked up to a six-month high (albeit marginally below 50). This is helped by the filtering-through of the earlier easing measures. However, external challenges are still abound and the pressures on job market are lingering. This calls for a continuation of policy easing in the coming months to secure a firmer growth recovery".

China Manufacturing PMI Moving Averages The short, intermediate, and long-term trends continue downwards. The PMI is a percentage - not a total.



The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is published on a monthly basis approximately one week before final PMI data are released, making the HSBC PMI the earliest available indicator of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. The estimate is typically based on approximately 85%–90% of total PMI survey responses each month and is designed to provide an accurate indication of the final PMI data.

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